Will anyone use Tesla’s robotaxis when they come to Austin? Probably not

Summary

Tesla plans to launch a small robotaxi fleet in Austin by the end of June or July.
Many Austinites are likely to boycott the taxis, given their association with Trump ally Elon Musk. People are already protesting at showrooms.
Tesla additionally faces an established rival — Alphabet’s Waymo — and the difficulties of navigating Austin’s terrain with its Full Self-Driving system.

Tesla
is working furiously to join the robotaxi market, and to no one’s surprise, the initial launch venue is slated to be Austin, Texas — home to the company’s global HQ. Talks with the City of Austin have been underway for months, and the automaker is planning to deploy a small fleet of

Model Y
s by the end of June or July, according to CEO Elon Musk. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform has also been mounting improvements.

Here’s the thing, though — while I’m currently in Edmonton, I spent over a decade living in Austin, complete with a Texan wife and child to prove it. Knowing the city, I have serious doubts about whether Tesla’s robotaxis will gain any traction there, and not just because of

FSD’s spotty track record
.

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The unpopularity contest

Misjudging your audience

CHVRCHES playing a concert in Austin, Texas.

While it makes sense to launch in Austin from a logistical perspective, the reality is that Elon Musk is deeply unpopular with a lot of locals, given his right-wing politics. Austin is a famously liberal city, thanks in part to institutions like its music scene and the University of Texas at Austin. There’s a notable LGBTQ+ district on 4th Street, and one of its best-known events is Eeyore’s Birthday, a free festival full of things like drum circles and wild costumes. There are conservative Austinites — particularly in the Republican-dominated Capitol building — but in the 2024 Presidential elections, over 68% of Travis County voted for Kamala Harris.

I’m expecting a lot of Austinites to not only ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, but actively boycott it.

Many locals are employed by Tesla, to be sure, but even some of them dislike their controversial boss. And the Tesla showroom in The Domain has been the site of multiple protests attacking Musk’s association with US President Donald Trump, not to mention other figures in the far-right.

I’m expecting a lot of Austinites to not only ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, but actively boycott it. Groups may expand the current protests, and there’s even the risk of vandalism and sabotage, given other well-publicized incidents around the US. Until Musk is forced out of Tesla — assuming that ever happens — there’s a distinct possibility that the only customers using his robotaxis will be tourists, Republicans, and apolitical types.

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Facing the competition (and the city)

Penned in by Alphabet and MoPac

Waymo

Even if Austin were as solidly Republican as Galveston, Tesla would still be facing another major obstacle: Waymo. Alphabet’s robotaxi service has been fully operational in Austin (through Uber) since March 2025, and was operating in other cities prior to that. It’s not only firmly established in city limits, but in the robotaxi industry in general, with a commanding lead over other US rivals like Zoox.

Tesla does have an advantage in that it’s been able to test FSD in a wide range of conditions, thanks to a mix of its own data and that from private car owners. It remains to be seen, however, if that will translate into the robotaxi world, much less beat Waymo’s own track record. Tesla has been conducting some advance testing on Austin streets, so it’s at least aware that it can’t hit the ground running.

I’m not even confident Tesla’s FSD tech will be able to tackle Austin terrain (reliably).

On top that, Austin itself is liable to be an obstacle. There’s a reason Waymo only operates in a small area from Parker Lane in the south to Hyde Park in the north — getting anywhere else is complicated without taking highways like MoPac (Loop 1), I35, and 183, and robotaxi services generally avoid highways in light of the risks involved. Tesla will probably have to operate under the same conditions, intensifying its competition with Waymo and limiting how many passengers it can attract. Huge suburban areas like Round Rock and Pflugerville (both of which I’ve lived in) will be out of reach, and major corporate offices belonging to Apple and Dell will be inaccessible.

I’m not even confident Tesla’s FSD tech will be able to tackle Austin terrain (reliably). Having driven those streets myself, I know that there are plenty of awkward intersections, never mind trying to navigate them during construction, rush hour, or the annual SXSW festival that draws in thousands of people and blocks off downtown. Austinites are already complaining about how Waymo vehicles perform — I can only imagine the nightmare of a newcomer multiplying the number of robotaxis on the road. All robotaxis tend to drive overly cautiously, sometimes impeding traffic, so there’s the potential for some serious traffic jams, particularly knowing that taxis from one company don’t have a way of communicating with those from another. A Waymo and a Model Y stopped on a road like 6th or Congress would generate chaos.

A Tesla Optimus robot serving drinks on a colored background

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Is the situation really that dire?

Some final thoughts

Tesla

Probably not from Tesla’s perspective. It’s planning to start with just 10 to 20 vehicles, and there’s almost certainly a market for that. It could encounter trouble scaling up, depending on public opinion and the progress of FSD, yet I doubt Musk is going to give up on testing one of his favorite projects in his backyard. The man is committed to self-driving vehicles of all kinds, so I expect that nothing short of a serious accident will force him to take robotaxis off the streets. Even then, it might just be a temporary setback — Uber eventually resumed autonomous testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in March 2018.

Maybe some liberal Austinites will be willing to ignore Musk’s politics for the sake of a ride home from 6th Street.

There could also be factors I haven’t considered. Maybe some liberal Austinites will be willing to ignore Musk’s politics for the sake of a ride home from 6th Street — maybe there are more conservatives downtown than I’m aware of. In any event, we’re going to find out the truth very shortly, and that could determine how Tesla’s long-term autonomous plans go.